Strategic Default on a Mortgage
One of the interesting side effects of the current mortgage crisis is that people are choosing to walk away from their mortgage payments even when they can make the payments. This action is known as a “strategic default”. In this article we’ll take a look at this phenomena and the potential upsides and downsides of strategic defaults from a consumer perspective.
The main reason people are choosing to take this drastic step, in spite of having a good job with sufficient income to pay their mortgage, is that housing prices have fallen so far in some areas and may have little hope for recovery any time soon. People just can see continuing to invest money in an asset that no longer has the value they expected, even given the considerable negative effect strategic defaults have on a person’s credit score.
In the past, strategic defaults were rare. Generally, mortgage defaults were caused by a serious financial problem the borrower encountered, such as long term job loss or a medical crisis. Occasionally, there would be strategic defaults by people who had purchased a dangerously faulty home or who had another non-financial crisis but this was quite rare. In most cases, people were willing to tough out bad situations in order to save their home and credit. But, today, this may be changing.
Financial experts have long assumed that 99% of the time a homeowner would not chose to face the serious consequences of defaulting on a mortgage. They believed that borrowers would rather deal with problems associated with a home rather than having their credit ruined and never owning a home again. But, this attitude seems to be changing. Why?
In areas that have been hard hit by the housing crisis, such as California, home values have fallen an average of 45% from peak prices of 2005-2006. This would make a house that was worth $500,000 in 2006 worth about $275,000 in 2010. What’s worse, economists are predicting that home prices may not rise significantly for 10 to 12 years in certain hard hit areas. This economic climate makes strategic defaulting an attractive choice for many homeowners.
On paper, it makes sense to do a strategic default for people living in certain areas. Since home values are expected to remain low for so long, a homeowner could potentially lose thousands of dollars should the sell their home or simply lose the opportunity cost for thousands in mortgage payments. The classic argument against renting is that you’re thowing money away, but, when there’s not equity to be gained from owning real estate it makes this argument less compelling. With rents depressed as well, a strategic default could put $1000 or more a month in the former homeowner’s wallet, freeing them up to purchase things, pay off other debts or even save money.
Also, in the era of big bank bailouts and long distance commuter subdivisions there is less civic pride to serve as a psychological barrier to strategic defaults. People today tend to see mortgage lenders more as “Mr. Potter” than “George Bailey” and thus don’t feel bad about defaulting on a mortgage loan that they believe was taking advantage of them. Also, with people less connected to their neighbors, they’re less likely to feel badly about the consequences their strategic default might have on their neighbor’s home prices and the quality of their community in general.
The only barrier that remains is the tough financial punishment that defaulting on a home loan brings. The result is that the defaulting borrower won’t be able to borrow money for quite some time except at very high interest rates. With the consumer credit markets remaining tight, one who does a strategic default on a mortgage may find it impossible to get a loan at any reasonable interest rate.
What does it mean financially if you do strategically default?
Basically, it means that if you carry out a strategic default you’ll be living on a cash basis for many years to come. Any consumer products you want, you’ll pay cash for them. If you buy a car, you’ll have to pay cash for it. And you probably won’t be able to qualify for a home loan for at least 10 years, maybe longer depending on what happens in the credit markets.
The bottom line is that you’ll have to maintain a strict financial life after you default. This kind of frugal, disciplined, lifestyle may be difficult for someone who’s been on a credit binge for years. Operating your household on a strict cash basis doesn’t come naturally for many people but it is possible if you commit yourself to it. In fact, I recommend it even if you don’t plan to do a strategic default. You’ll find yourself in much better financial shape if you do.
Should you do a strategic default on your mortgage?
A lot of people are asking themselves this question since around 15 million homes have mortgages that are upside down and nearly 5 million mortgages are facing foreclosure or are behind 2 or more months. Some estimates calculate that about 1/4 of these troubled mortgages are held by someone who may be in or considering a strategic default.
Such a default isn’t easy. It requires some tough choices and tough lifestyle changes. It requires balancing your civic responsibility to your community against your own financial well-being. It means determining if your personal integrity means that you should keep your promise to the mortgage lender. It means preparing yourself and your family to shun credit and live on cash only. These are questions that you’ll need to consider before committing to a strategic default on a mortgage.